Since at least the 1930s, and inescapably since Beker in the 1970s, emphasis has been given to the importance of contingent circumstances as a hermeneutical key to Paul's letters. In this study I explore possibilities of a statistical analysis of key word usage as a means to calibrate emotional distance between author and audience. By ascertaining the extent to which Paul feels comfortable with his audience, the 'x-factor' contingency, it is possible to 'weigh' the value of the soteriological statements that Paul makes in his letters.